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Last Budget for
the Century As I indicated at the beginning, this is the last Budget for this century. In fact, this Budget will actually take us into the new millennium. Just as we do at Watch Night services, even as we look forward, we look back, and I believe it is useful for us to share with each other, the lessons which we have learnt after 37 years of political independence, but particularly, those learnt in the last 25 years. To say that macro economic management must be relevant to a specific context, time, cultural and historical, is self-evident. Nonetheless, there are some clear lessons which successive administrations would have learnt, and which should guide those (whoever they may be), who have responsibility for the future. I address them in no specific order of importance, except for the first which is "strive for a fiscal surplus". The attainment of a fiscal surplus implies simultaneously, taking steps to maximize revenue collections, even whilst containing expenditure. The benefits for everyone, although sometimes indirect, are enormous. With tight fiscal management in place, a Government leaves room for greater access to credit by the private sector, thus opening opportunities for increased investment and economic growth. Furthermore, even as a government generates a surplus, it makes it easier for it to attract external credit at lower interest rates, thus reducing the burden of debt servicing. Perhaps, most important, is that the stronger the fiscal balance, the more one is able to reduce borrowing, both domestically as well as from external agencies. The negatives associated with such external borrowing, particularly with regard to stringent conditionalities, should be well known to us. This leads logically to the question of external debt management. Again, a critical lesson which we should have learnt, is that the country's external indebtedness should be monitored and regulated very carefully to avoid being overly dependent on external resources. Recent developments in the Far East have demonstrated beyond any question, the potential for massive disruption, when external creditors, particularly those with short-term funds, lose confidence in an economy, for whatever reason. These clear lessons speak to the need to be able to maintain a healthy NIR in order to give a signal to all creditors, domestic and external, that if "push comes to shove", one can meet ones external obligations. Inflation Virtually the whole world has come to accept that sustained high levels of inflation are counter-productive from both economic and social perspectives. Have already spoken of the dramatic turn-around in three years. Let us not taken the improvement for granted. Further, most of all, inflation is the most cruel tax which can be imposed on pensioners and on the poor. Pace of Liberalization It is generally accepted that the era of an economy with a whole range of controls and restrictions is over. We have seen the results of fixed exchange rate, not backed by reserves, price controls and exclusive import licences. However, at the same time, we have learnt that liberalization must take place within the context of an adequate regulatory system to ensure that those, particularly in the financial sector, who are granted licences to operate, are fit and proper. We have to ensure that the regulatory system exists to quickly identify and punish those who abuse the privileges granted to them. Finally, but not least, a major lesson is the need for sustained and continued investment in the social infrastructure. This must not be interpreted as being a commitment to provide free of charge, access to such service, but rather to ensure that within the context of the country's resources, every child will be able to progress to the maximum limits of his or her capabilities, and that every person will be able to access adequate health care at a reasonable cost. COMPETING IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM Having looked at the lessons which we have learnt, we must speak to the type of citizens who will be required to operate in the future. All of us have to change and improve our modus operandi, as individuals, and collectively as a nation, if we are going to be able to compete. Each individual has to become competent and comfortable with new technologies. Increasingly, each individual has become more flexible in terms of the skills which he or she is able to offer for sale. The Government must become more efficient and more sensitive to the need to provide better quality service to its citizens. The era of contracts with extensive time and financial over-runs cannot continue. Each dollar which has to be spent because of cost over-runs on Project A, precludes expenditure on Project B which may be equally necessary. The future calls for an increase in skills and the self-confidence of a workforce trained not at "third world standards" but to levels which make us world competitive even as we choose to live and work here. It is not a matter of choice because, as recent events have demonstrated in as clear a fashion as possible, no concession can be taken for granted. Survival in the new millennium is no different from a war in which "no prisoners are being taken." These imperatives speak to the required output of the education and training system. They also speak to the requirement of the type of persons who are needed to run successful businesses. Too many of our established business men become "successful" by virtue of their access to the power structure, their ability to commandeer an exclusive license to import, or to ensure freedom from imported competition. Tragically, too many still feel that the response to any problem is to seek out the relevant Minister and ask that special favours be granted and that exclusivity be granted. The fact is that, even if the Minister were so inclined, increasingly this has become less and less possible. RECRUITING FUTURE PUBLIC SERVANTS But in all of this new structure, the question is, will the public sector at the technical and political levels be able to attract the quality of leadership needed to face the challenges of the new millennium. I honestly believe that we face a growing problem whereby young talented persons are being discouraged from offering themselves for public service. Many individuals, many groups, many sectors, have worked to create this situation. As a nation, we excel at extolling how bad things are, how uncompetitive we are, and how we pale in comparison to everyone else. We are an amazing country, in that, persons can become famous by simply talking about how bad things are, and convincing everyone that there is no hope. There is need for us to be able to attract new persons into the Public Service. In the late 1930s, the labour revolts and the call for adult suffrage provided the challenge for that generation. Subsequently, the goal first for internal self-government, and then full political independence provided the impetus . As we step into the new millennium, there is need for a new to "call to arms". We must be able to attract talented young people to assume the challenge of making Jamaica world competitive. But this recruitment of new talent cannot be based on denigrating the contributions of those who have given of their best in the past. In that regard, we in this House must share some of the blame. Too often we seek to score points by belittling the achievements of each other. We must begin the process of encouraging the young to enter Public Service by educating them about the contributions made by those who have served and passed on, and equally important, those who have served in various capacities and are still with us. By this I mean, let us honour the memories of our National Heroes. Let us honour the memory of our former Prime Minister, Michael Manley. However, equally important, let us honour those who are still with us. Let us honour former Prime Minister Hugh Shearer, who has served in diverse capacities and still continues to serve nationally. Very few would know the instances when a potentially explosive situation on the labour front has been avoided by his timely intervention. My colleague Minister, Minister of Labour and I, have benefited from his wisdom, his guidance and his unswerving commitment to national development. But how many of the young will understand the years of service given by this man and the service which he continues to give. Let us honour our present Prime Minister, who from his days as a University student, has committed his life to national service, and continues to do so. He is someone who has suffered rejection at the polls, but did not walk away with bitterness. Rather, he sought to rebuild his base and his party for its eventual return to political power. Let us honour and respect the man who, with God's blessings, will lead us into the new millennium. Let us honour former Prime Minister, Present Leader of the Opposition, Mr. Edward Seaga, who this year, will celebrate forty years, either as a Senator or as a Member of Parliament - an un-precedented record. In addition, someone who has served for thirteen years as Ministry of Finance and Planning, unlikely to be equaled by anyone. What do the young know of the sacrifices made by these people. Sacrifices in terms of time stolen from their families, or even from their own personal relaxation and development. To the young, particularly those professionals who have benefited from the countries allocation of scarce resources, through the tertiary system - my challenge to you is to step up and prepare yourselves for similar service. It is not very difficult for everyone to become instant experts on financial matters, on the Public Sector, on interest rates, whatever. The country is drowning in a sea of such experts. It is a far different matter for one to serve, to withstand criticisms, ridicule, or even charges of dishonesty. A question posed to me by many young people is. Why should I do this? Why should I not practice my craft and live a good life, or even practice my craft in another country? I would not date to dictate to anyone on a personal choice. Some young people are cut out to offer themselves for public service, and some are not. And so, it is to that former group, those with some inclination towards such service, that I speak. Why should you offer yourself for public service? One answer is that you can make a difference. You are better trained, better prepared to meet the challenges of the world than the previous generations were. Pick an area for intervention; improve your skills and offer your services. Why should you serve here, and not abroad? One concern of a few years ago was a sense that, with globalization, affinity to ones country was an anachronism. Recent events should have vividly illustrated to us that we may be citizens of the world, but each of us has to have a place where we call home. There are many who will never feel comfortable, regardless of the monetary rewards, calling North America or Europe, home. The recent crisis with bananas, is a case in point. Furthermore, recent decisions - the bombings inflicted on small, weak, mismatched countries, must make you wonder whether even if the leadership of the countries are guilty of wrong doing, does any external group or country, have the right to inflict arbitrary punishment on innocent people. The simple point that I am making, is that when we get down to basics, all of us need somewhere to call home. We may all think globally, but in the final analysis, we all need somewhere that we can call ours, from which we cannot be deported, where we can make our mark. So in closing, I have presented the numbers, I have been as forthright and honest as I can be, in indicating that this will be a tough year, with a continuing service debt burden, and a Capital Budget which is much smaller than what would be desired. But if we get pass the numbers, the job of all of us present here, is to find a way of going beyond our differences and identifying common objectives to build a better country for the new millennium.
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